Harley-Davidson. Report. Trend. Practical Lesson on Debt
Judging by the Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI), the market average selling price in the sector of motorcycles, bikes, and accessories has been growing steadily since May 2022. At the same time, the December prices have gone up 2.8% as compared to last year.
Following yesterday’s report, Harley-Davidson shares #HOG jumped 10%. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, the legendary motorcycle manufacturer still managed to demonstrate solid performance figures. As January is living up to expectations, demand signals are met. Since the beginning of the year, #HOG is +24%, and +44% per annum. This year, Harley-Davidson is also celebrating its 120th anniversary.
- The new structure of segment reporting
Having spun off its electric motorcycle division on September 27, 2022, Harley-Davidson created LiveWire, the first publicly traded electric motorcycle company in the United States under the #LVWR ticker. After closing the deal, Harley-Davidson’s controlling stake in the company totals 89.4%. Consolidated net profit attributable to Harley-Davidson, Inc. along with EPS will now be reported after adjustment, i.e. ↓ - Starting Q4 2022, new #HOG business segment reporting now includes:
- Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) ► a group manufacturing and selling Harley-Davidson motorcycles
- Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) ► a group providing financing, and insurance to help get riders on the road
- LiveWire ► a group engaged in the development and sale of LiveWire electric bikes including STACYC, electric-powered balance bikes
- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HDI) ► a corporate entity for the overall company, under which HDMC, HDFS, and LiveWire operate
- Consolidated Financial Results
Entire 2022 (In order to be objective, let me remind you that Harley-Davidson halted motorcycle production in Q2)- Revenues: $5.75 bln (+8%) ► HDMC +9%; HDFS +3%; LiveWire +31%
- Harley-Davidson motorcycle supplies: 193,500 units (+3%)
- Operating income: $909 mln (+10%)
- Net income: $741 mln (+14%)
- EPS: $4.96 (+18%)
Q4 of 2022 (YoY)
- Revenues: $1.14 bln (+12%)
- Harley-Davidson motorcycle supplies: 34,000 units (+18%)
- Operating income: $4 mln (vs ($7))
- Net income: $42 mln (+94%)
- EPS: $0.28 (+100%)
About Capital
- Cash flow from operating activities (CFO) = $548 mln
- Cash flows and their equivalents = $1.4 bln at the end of the year (-$442 mln)
- Capital investment for the whole year = $180 mln
- Paybacks to stakeholders over $400 mln = $93 mln dividends paid + $324 mln share buyback (8.4 mln shares)
П#HOG Forecast for the entire 2023
- HDFS ► decline in operating income between 20 and 25%
- LiveWire ► wholesales of motorcycles from 750 to 2,000 units and loss resulting from operating income between $115 and $125 mln
- Harley-Davidson ► capital investments between $225 and $250 mln
Annual Forecast for Cost Inflation
- Logistics: sea freight rates reduction is offset by an increase in storage and labor costs ► +0-2%
- Production: higher labor costs ► +3-5%
- Materials: the cost of suppliers’ services increased due to raised tariffs; this is partially offset by lower commodity costs ► +2-3%
What about the debt?
Yesterday’s report demonstrated key operating figures. However, when analyzing the debt levels, it makes sense to start off with the balance sheet which interestingly was not included. Given the data in the Q3 balance, it’s important to emphasize the company’s pretty high debt and look further into the details. This will be a lesson of sorts as exemplified by #HOG. The reference data for the quarter ended September 2022
- #HOG short-term debt = $2,433 mln; long-term debt = $4,738 mln. Cumulative debt = $7,170 mln (roughly the level of a similar period a year earlier). At the same time, #HOG had a cumulative of $2,430 mln in cashч► Net Debt = $5150 mln.
- Annual EBITDA = $1,112 mln ► Annual Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio = 7170/1112 = 6.44 ► High. A high Debt-to-EBITDA ratio means that paying off the debt will take longer. A rate that’s higher than 4-5 is typically a worrying sign unless tangible assets cover the debt.
- The Interest Coverage Ratio measures how easily a company can pay interest on outstanding debt. This is how we calculate it: EBIT= $339 mln; Interest Expenses = $8 mln ► EBIT/Interest Expenses = 339/8 = 41.70 ► As compared to similar companies operating within the same sector, it is considered high. The higher it is, the better the financial sustainability. In contrast, the lower it is, the greater the debt cost burden, and the less money can be used for other purposes. When this figure is only 1.5 or less, the company is unlikely to be able to pay interest on its debt.
- #HOG own equity = $2,840 mln. Let’s see to what extent #HOG finances its operations using debt rather than its own resources. Debt/Equity = 7,170/2,840 = 2.52 ► High. High levels typically indicate that the company finances its activities and growth aggressively through debt. This can cause unstable earnings due to additional interest expenses. Among peers, a higher D/E ratio implies greater risk. Note that the median value for this sector is 0.48.
- The right way to approach this matter is obviously by comparing the rate and the benchmark ( the industry average) and then doing a horizontal analysis. Here’s what we see here: really high debt levels/EBITDA of 44—which is not good—against a high interest coverage rate of 41.70—which is good. In other words, Harley-Davidson is likely to have access to very cheap long-term debt.
- In this regard, EBIT which boosts the ability to repay debt is of critical importance ► in 2022, Harley-Davidson’s EBIT grew by 10%, and by 85 times in 2021… With that, I would emphasize a decline in EBIT from $339 million in Q3 to $4 million in Q4. After all, future revenue, like nothing else, defines the ability to maintain a healthy balance in the years ahead.
- To sum it up, we can say that Harley-Davidson has a solid foundation, with one exception—its high debt. So, it makes sense to keep an eye on the debt levels to make sure it does not increase, the growth of interest expenses, and the EBIT dynamic.