{"id":16458,"date":"2022-09-28T14:14:33","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T11:14:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ivankroshnyi.com\/?p=16458"},"modified":"2022-09-28T14:14:35","modified_gmt":"2022-09-28T11:14:35","slug":"u-s-ipo-activity-plunges-severely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ivankroshnyi.com\/en\/u-s-ipo-activity-plunges-severely\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. IPO Activity Plunges Severely"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-size: 22px;\"><b>Content:<\/b><\/p>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #808080; border: 2px solid #808080; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\">1. <a href=\"#1\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Numbers<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n2. <a href=\"#2\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">In a nutshell<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n3. <a href=\"#3\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Giving a thought to the whole thing<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Marked 238 days without a tech IPO worth more than $50 mln as the market downturn sparked the longest drought in the U.S. in 20 years.<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"1\"><\/a>According to Morgan Stanley, this year has topped the previous records set in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008 and the dot-com crash in the early 2000s. Fast-growing tech stocks have been disproportionately hit: the tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite has fallen 28%, while S&amp;P 500 has dropped just over 19%.<\/p>\n<p>Today, we see a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the market. And uncertainty is the enemy of the IPO market, too.<\/p>\n<h2>Numbers<\/h2>\n<p>\u2714The Renaissance IPO Index, which tracks U.S. listed companies, is down 45% since the beginning of the year.<br \/>\n\u2714According to Bloomberg, 182 companies have raised around $21.6 billion on U.S. exchanges this year, including the largest IPO worth $1.68 bln by well-known Corebridge Financial cautiously accepted by investors.<br \/>\n<a id=\"2\"><\/a>\u2714Based on Dealogic\u2019s data, it\u2019s around $16.2 bln. Roughly speaking, even with discrepancies, overall U.S. IPO volumes are down 92% YoY after Corebridge\u2019s deal.<\/p>\n<h2>In a nutshell<\/h2>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #32CD32; border: 2px solid #32CD32; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\"><strong>No surprises here<\/strong>. Many went for IPOs while things were going well. That\u2019s why we saw busy markets in 2020\/2021. The cycle is now beginning anew. Tech companies raised so much private capital before the recession that there was no longer a need for more. For that reason, most issuers have pushed their IPO plans back to 2023.<\/p>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #32CD32; border: 2px solid #32CD32; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\"><strong>There\u2019s a \u00abbuyers\u2019 strike\u00bb<\/strong>. Investors are in no mood to take elevated risks, while sellers are still looking back with an anchoring bias. Unprofitable tech and biotech stocks, which act as competitors for new IPOs, have plummeted.<\/p>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #32CD32; border: 2px solid #32CD32; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\">Also, the <strong>stock market is suffering<\/strong> from the Fed fighting to reduce inflation through aggressive rate hikes. It affects stock prices, devaluing future earnings and raising fears in a recessionary economy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #32CD32; border: 2px solid #32CD32; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\"><strong>The IPOs of fast-growing<\/strong> tech companies were too dominant last year and brought some of the biggest profits, but it works the other way today. This year, they\u2019re suffering proportionately from the sell-off.<\/p>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #32CD32; border: 2px solid #32CD32; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Forecasts have worsened in some companies and sectors<\/strong>. As macroeconomic factors affect their valuations. According to FactSet, IT groups in S&amp;P 500 almost met earnings estimates in Q2, but forecasts for Q3 have been repeatedly revised lower\u2014with earnings expected to drop 4% YoY.<\/p>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #32CD32; border: 2px solid #32CD32; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Last year, there was little discussion about profitability among IPO candidates<\/strong>. Now there are more of them. Nonetheless, we still see a problem shifting the focus of attention from a growth story to a profit story as issuers need time to prove their progress.<\/p>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #32CD32; border: 2px solid #32CD32; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\"><a id=\"3\"><\/a>Many tech companies are <strong>putting greater emphasis<\/strong> on cutting costs to make a profit, but they would need time to prove that the changes do work.<\/p>\n<h2>Giving a thought to the whole thing<\/h2>\n<p style=\"background-color: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 7px #94002a; border: 2px solid #94002a; padding: 19px; border-radius: 6px; text-align: left;\"><strong>1.<\/strong> Market players switch from long-term investment to short-term trading. Due to market volatility, many find it hard to keep the long-term horizon as they have to become market traders with a 3\u20136 month horizon.<br \/>\n<strong>2.<\/strong> The upcoming IPOs, when the Fed raises rates to more than 4% (yesterday, it raised rates by 75 bps to a target range of 3\u20133.25%), will bring more reasonable prices. Founders will no longer be billionaires overnight.<br \/>\n<strong>3.<\/strong> At the year-end, S&amp;P 500 may take the lead. But, over the past five years, Nasdaq Composite showed +78% compared to +54% gained by S&amp;P 500. Tech stocks lose more in the short run but also perform better in the long run. We want to see a more stable outlook and investors returning to buying public securities before they take risks buying tech stocks in IPOs.<br \/>\n<strong>4.<\/strong> Now the feeble market is shrinking the time horizon for tech listings to revive due to uncertainty, even after signs of life pop up in other sectors. And there\u2019s more to come ahead, including the next U.S. presidential election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Marked 238 days without a tech IPO worth more than $50 mln as the market downturn sparked the longest drought in the U.S. in 20 years. In this article we will talk about it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16466,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[171],"tags":[187],"class_list":["post-16458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-en-en","tag-finance-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>U.S. IPO Activity Plunges Severely - \u0418\u0432\u0430\u043d \u041a\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043d\u044b\u0439<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ivankroshnyi.com\/en\/u-s-ipo-activity-plunges-severely\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"U.S. IPO Activity Plunges Severely - \u0418\u0432\u0430\u043d \u041a\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043d\u044b\u0439\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Marked 238 days without a tech IPO worth more than $50 mln as the market downturn sparked the longest drought in the U.S. in 20 years. 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